CMHC’s Housing Affordability Report: What It Means for Canadians in the Next 30 Days
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A new report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is painting a picture of a housing market that is still stretched, but showing signs of stabilization. The latest Housing Affordability Composite Index shows that affordability pressures have spread beyond just Toronto and Vancouver to cities like Ottawa, Montréal, and Halifax. Even as national conditions show modest improvement, the report warns that a true reset to pre-pandemic norms is unlikely in the near term.
If you are a homeowner, a renter, or someone thinking about buying in the next 30 days, this is important context.
What CMHC’s data says
CMHC’s index shows that affordability has deteriorated in three waves since 2001, with the most recent wave accelerating after 2020. The first two waves were driven largely by the Toronto and Vancouver markets, but after 2020, the pressure spread to other cities as remote work and labour mobility changed where people live and work.
Since 2023, CMHC notes that homeownership affordability has improved modestly in Ottawa, Toronto, Vancouver, and Halifax, and stabilized in Montréal, Calgary, and Edmonton. But the key point is that “conditions remain stretched relative to long-term averages.” That means that even though prices and rates may be cooling, affordability is still not back to where it was before the pandemic.
What this means for buyers in the next month
If you are thinking about buying a home in the next 30 days, you should be aware that conditions are improving, but not resetting. In cities like Toronto and Vancouver, where prices were inflated during the pandemic, you may see modest price reductions, more choices, and slightly better mortgage rates. But in markets like Ottawa, Montréal, and Halifax, where affordability has been under pressure, you may still face higher prices and tougher competition.
CMHC also notes that near-term improvements in housing supply are unlikely due to trade uncertainty, high construction costs, weakening demand, and rising inventories. That means that new supply will not arrive quickly enough to significantly change the market in the short term.
What this means for renters
For renters, the report shows that rental affordability has been squeezed by inflation, especially in 2022 and 2023. Strong immigration levels have also pushed up demand, which has made it harder for renters to find affordable housing. While rent growth has slowed in higher-end segments thanks to elevated condominium inventories in Toronto and Vancouver, more affordable rental units remain tight.
CMHC notes that elevated condominium inventories in Toronto and Vancouver are increasing secondary rental supply, with unsold units being leased out. That is pushing vacancy rates up and slowing rent growth in the higher-end segments, but it is not helping the supply of affordable units.
A real-life example
Imagine you are a renter in Toronto who has been paying $2,500 per month for a one-bedroom condo. In 2022, that rent might have felt tight, but now you are seeing higher vacancy rates and slower rent growth. However, you are still struggling to find an affordable unit because the supply of affordable rentals is limited and new construction is slowing.
As a buyer, you might be considering a $1.2 million home in a desirable Toronto neighbourhood. Prices may have cooled slightly, but affordability is still stretched compared to pre-pandemic levels. You might need to tighten your budget, adjust your expectations, or look at different neighbourhoods to find something that works.
What this means for the next 30 days
If you are thinking about buying or renting in the next month, it is important to be realistic about your budget and stay focused on your long-term goals. The market is less volatile than it was during the pandemic, but conditions are still constrained. You may see modest improvements, but a true reset is unlikely.
CMHC’s report also suggests that new supply will not arrive quickly enough to significantly change the market in the short term. That means that affordability gains will likely come gradually, and you should be prepared for a longer-term strategy.
How to prepare for the next 30 days
• Review your budget and factor in all costs (mortgage, insurance, property taxes, maintenance).
• Understand your debt-to-income ratio and be prepared to adjust your expectations.
• Stay informed about market conditions and be ready to act quickly when you find something that fits your budget.
• Consider working with a mortgage professional to help you navigate the market and find the best options for your situation.
What this means for you
If you are thinking about buying, renting, or refinancing in the next 30 days, CMHC’s report is a reminder that affordability is still a challenge, but conditions are improving. The key is to be realistic, stay informed, and be prepared.
If you want help understanding how these market conditions affect your mortgage, your budget, or your next move, reach out to Mr. Mortgage today.
Kechanth Kannan | Mr. Mortgage
Phone: +1 (647) 554-2718
Instagram: @_mrmortgage
